Where are we going?
And suddenly the world stopped and started a curve towards an unprecedented transformation.
Faced with forced confinement, the world has become virtual.
Social media, chat apps and conferences were overcrowded.
Information of all kinds flooded the screens, from false and true news to messages of hope and reflection.
And in view of this scenario, which we call an intermediary scenario, much has been speculated about the future of the planet and the economy.
Newspapers from all countries designed a world totally focused on digital technology.
But, is this true? After three weeks of confinement, endless exchanges of whatsapp messages and virtual apéros, people started getting disconnected. Our team interviewed a hundred people and 80% of them expressed a certain saturation of the virtual world. Maristela, 60: “We are receiving so many messages, some of them containing interesting things, others containing no interesting things at all, that it's getting really difficult to manage it, to filter the subjects and even answer our friends”. Patrícia, 60: “Today I haven't seen WhatsApp all day”. Maria, 70: “I can't stand hearing about coronavirus anymore, I can't stand watching TV, reading facebook anymore...”. Mariana, 34: “I was already tired of facebook... this is just one more reason for me to get away from social networks ...”. Lidiane, 46: “I can't stand virtual life anymore, I really miss life ...”. Suddenly, what has been underestimated in recent times, such as attention to the family and friends, appreciation of the present moment, quality time with children, solidarity, etc ... has become a priority. We believe that technology, the virtual world, will continue to have its place and even greater than before, but in a more conscious way. It is possible that this new reality will teach us how to use technology, how it can serve us and not to the other way around.
In addition to rescuing good values in the relational sphere, other good values are also present in the behavioral sphere. With alarms about the scarcity of supplies in the markets, people went from the stage of buying the unnecessary in an exaggerated way to the current stage of buying the essentials in a balanced way.
The world understood that greater than the impact of not having a certain product because the stores are closed, is the impact of not having the money to buy it when the stores are open. The new cell phone model can wait, the computer saturated with information can be cleaned and better used, old peripherals can be adapted, and so on. It is interesting to note that while the world depends on technology and it would make sense to go in search of something more modern, it is also a moment of awareness for the economic crisis to come and for the importance of not wasting what we have. The impact on the market is certainly present.
Worldwide IT spending was originally forecast to grow by just over 5% in constant currency this year, as strong PC sales in the fourth quarter of 2019 gave way to a smartphone upgrade cycle driven by 5G and a recovery for service provider spending on infrastructure, while momentum around digital transformation projects continued to ensure strong demand for software and IT services. The February Black Book downgraded growth to 4.3% and dropping closer to 3% in March based on the latest forecast adjustments and scenarios. In a pessimistic scenario, based on the crisis extending beyond Q2 outside China, the worldwide IT market is more likely to grow by around 1%.
“The pessimistic scenario is not a worst-case scenario,” stated Stephen Minton, Vice President in IDC’s Customer Insights & Analysis group. “Things are moving so quickly that we need to constantly recalibrate our assumptions and expectations, but the pessimistic scenario reflects an IT market in which weaker economic growth translates into weaker business and consumer spending across all technologies over the next few quarters. Things could get worse, but hopefully not.”